Report on guidelines for treatment of variance in forecasts, structural uncertainty, risk communication and acceptable levels

This report details the SEAwise guidelines for estimating uncertainty and the predictive capability of models, both of which are key components of the SEAwise Output Quality Assurance Process. All data and models used in SEAwise are evaluated using this Quality Assurance Process. These guidelines were developed through a review of the published scientific literature and in consultation with SEAwise partners, members of the larger scientific community, and interested stakeholders.

The guidelines are intended to support the collaborative use and development of the best available scientific tools that are fit for purpose for Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management. As project partners apply the guidelines throughout the SEAwise regions, it is expected that they will be further developed and articulated. The guidelines are not meant to be prescriptive but rather to be used as a basic framework that specifies acceptable risk levels, to ensure that predictive models are placed in the sweet spot where model complexity maximises predictive ability in a way that works for both the developers and end users.

Find the full report here.