The modern world is hugely complex, rich with flows of capital, goods, people, and ideas over often vast geographies. These flows, and the way they connect us to one another, make up systems that connect the global to the local, and mean change at one level (i.e. in the global economy) can influence what happens at another (i.e. fuel price increases), and vice versa. Whilst this global connectivity can be desirable, it can also produce unintended consequences, like climate change or overfishing, so developing an understanding of how future macro-level socio-economic change may be felt at the regional and sub-regional level is essential to allow for the management of potential impacts and to mitigate possible unintended consequences.
To understand this complexity in regards to fisheries management, SEAwise researchers, working as part of our Social and Economic Effects theme, explored the impact of alternative future scenarios on the social and economic dynamics of large- and small-scale fishing fleets operating in three of our Case Study regions: the North Sea, Western Waters (Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay), and Mediterranean Sea (Central Mediterranean and Eastern Mediterranean).
Through modelling four alternative socio-economic scenarios (featuring differing levels of climate change, fuel costs, and fish prices) in addition to different management scenarios, SEAwise researchers found the following key impacts:
In the North Sea, changes in fuel and fish price alongside climate change affected the economic performance of fleets targeting demersal mixed fisheries, with large-scale fleets generally fairing better economically. This effect, however, was less than that of the management scenarios – a finding that was also mirrored in other Case Study regions. Amongst the different management scenarios, strict implementation of the Landing Obligation always outperformed the scenario most closely resembling the status-quo, with the ‘Pretty Good Yield’ scenario, where fishing effort/catch is capped at sustainable levels, evidencing the highest gains in economic performance (with only marginally higher CO2 emissions/kg landed catch).
For our Western Waters Case Study region: in the Bay of Biscay, the impact of management scenarios on the economic performance of fleets varied between the small- and large-scale fleets. However, the small-scale fleet was found to be more economically vulnerable to changes in fuel and fish price change due to factors which include the fleet typically operating with narrower profit margins. Climate change was found to amplify the effects of these scenarios. In the Celtic Sea, the impacts of climate change on economic revenue was again projected to be less than the effects of the management scenarios – as some fish stocks are expected to increase in productivity under climate change.
Relating to the Mediterranean Case Study region: in the Central Mediterranean (Adriatic and Western Ionian Sea), fleets’ economic performance did not substantially differ between the socio-economic scenarios. With management, however, economic performance was higher under strict management scenarios (with projected fishing catch or effort capped at sustainable levels under the FMSY and ‘Pretty Good Yield’ scenarios), as opposed to the scenario resembling the status-quo. In the Eastern Mediterranean (Eastern Ionian Sea), economic performance was projected to increase for both the small- and large-scale fleets under all scenarios – as the revenues generated by fish price increases were found to exceed the increased cost of fuel. Additionally, the small-scale fleets were found to be more efficient and have a lower carbon footprint per kg/fish landed than the large-scale fleet.
The model developments outlined in this report, particularly regarding capital dynamics, are a useful step forward and will be integrated into future modelling work undertaken both as part of SEAwise and beyond.
Read the full report here.
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