Report on Carbon footprint economic and social impacts of revised management strategies in a changing climate based on information from full MSEs

SEAwise research

This report explores the impacts of different future socio-economic scenarios – varying in climate change impact, fuel and fish price – combined with management scenarios, with a specific focus on the impacts on small- and large-scale fleets across our four Case Study regions. The four socioeconomic scenarios are as follow:

• Global Sustainability: a moderate warming scenario where international cooperation allows for better resource management and prioritisation of sustainability (this scenario sees small rise in fish prices and marked rise in fuel price compared to other scenarios).

• National Enterprise: a high warming scenario where countries prioritise national interests with less global cooperation, resulting in rising emissions driven by fossil fuel reliance (this scenario sees important increases in fish & fuel price).

• Local Stewardship: a moderate warming scenario, whereby sustainability is pursued through small-scale regional efforts with an emphasis on democratic and socially inclusive values.

• World Markets: A high warming scenario, whereby strong demand for affordable seafood drives technological advancements which prevent significant rises in fuel and fish prices despite impacts of global warming. 

Models developed as part of the project were adjusted to the above scenarios, with specific management measures applied at case level. The socio-economic impacts of management measures were evaluated for the different scenarios through the following indicators:

• Carbon Emissions (per kilogram of fish)
• Fuel consumption (per kilogram of fish)
• Gross Value Added 
• Employment
• Wage

Results

In the Bay of Biscay, implementation of the Landing Obligation led to an overall increase in GVA, with positive impacts across all scenarios, with potentially negative impacts on account of spatial measures mitigated by the positive impact of socio-economic scenarios with, for example, higher first sales prices. There were notable differences in carbon emissions between small- and large-scale fisheries, the latter increasing steadily over time, highlighting the need for dedicated efforts to reduce emissions in these fleets. 

In the Celtic Sea we explored the effects of altering fleet structure by halving bottom trawl effort and increasing static gear effort by factors of 2, 5 and 10; changes which generally led to improved demersal catches without compromising biomass. 

Gear modifications in the North Sea delayed choke risk for fleets in Landing Obligation scenarios, reducing catches of young roundfish while better utilising flatfish quotas. The consequent increase in fish prices meant that despite the higher fuel usage and costs demanded by increased fishing effort, positive economic outcomes were reported for both small- and large-scale fleets. 

We observed positive trends in carbon emissions in the Central Mediterranean (Adriatic and Western Ionian) under the ‘Local stewardship’ scenario, particularly in small-scale fleets. Gear modifications aimed at improving selectivity led to medium- and long-term economic gains.